There are many different economic and political aspects to Ramaphosa’s trip to Washington this week. But as important as they are, many could be overshadowed by the drama of one issue.
The real motif of Trump’s political agenda is about race.
“Make America Great Again” is all about this, a call to turn the clock back to when white people numerically and culturally dominated the US.
His actions in claiming that white people are victims (and thus the search for Afrikaans refugees) are all about this. His lies that white people in South Africa are the victims of a “genocide” show the depths that he will go to, to perpetuate this falsehood.
This might well create a powerful sense of symbolism in his meeting with Ramaphosa.
Ramaphosa will come into the meeting as the very living and breathing embodiment of everything that Trump has campaigned against.
While Ramaphosa will be there representing South Africa, in some ways he may carry a heavier burden. Considering all the racial scapegoating that Trump has engaged in, Ramaphosa might find that he in fact represents all of Africa and her diaspora at this meeting.
He is also currently head of the G20, which may give him even more legitimacy, considering most of its other members feel attacked by Trump.
This means that he may feel he has a duty, in a hugely public encounter, to respond to what Trump has signalled for so long.
This could provide the encounter with rare and powerful drama, something the likes of which we have rarely seen before.
It should also be remembered that while Trump, as leader of the world’s biggest economy and its greatest military superpower, will always have the upper hand in this kind of meeting, Ramaphosa is not that weak.
Ramaphosa’s strengths
The two most high-profile meetings involving Trump and other world leaders in the White House in recent times have been with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
In both cases, those countries are hugely dependent on the US.
Both Carney and Zelensky went into the meeting knowing their countries depended on Trump (Canada because their economies are so intertwined, Ukraine because it needs the US military and intelligence help to fight Russia).
The same is not the case for South Africa. While there would be a huge amount of economic pain if Trump imposed higher tariffs on us, we would still survive.
And from a domestic political standpoint, standing up to Trump would win Ramaphosa huge plaudits.
He would appear as the black person who stood up to white racism, personified by the US president, often referred to as “the most powerful man on Earth”.
While there would be economic consequences, for Ramaphosa, personally, there would be only upside. He would look like the only person to stand up to Trump.
And in some ways, he may be uniquely qualified to do this.
He is black, the head of state of a country that embraces redress and DEI, he has a long history in fighting for freedom and is proud to lead a diverse country.
It may also be helpful that he is in his final term as President, and thus may feel freer to say things than he would at the beginning of a political career.
Ramaphosa’s own experience and ability, too, might help.
One of his political gifts is the ability to control his temper, to be both aggressive and calm under pressure at the same time.
This has been displayed several times. It can be devastating when he chooses to unleash it.
And while it may not be wise to do this to the President of the US in the Oval Office, one of the Trump-supporting journalists who regularly accost other heads of state in these encounters might find themselves the perfect target for this treatment.
Trade deal
However, as important and dramatic as this may be, Ramaphosa’s main aim may be to avoid this.
Rather, his priority is likely to be some kind of trade deal with the US, which would lead to more economic activity here, and thus more jobs being created.
While it is not possible to know what exactly will be discussed, there are strong indications that Ramaphosa’s government is working on a comprehensive deal.
Reporting by Business Day suggests that our gas industry may be an important part of this.
Currently we are heading for a “gas cliff” as gas fields run by Sasol in Mozambique are running out. These supplies need to be replaced.
It appears that our officials are willing to sign a deal that would see US companies supplying gas and being allowed to explore for gas here.
This would solve two problems at once.
It would mean our gas shortage is dealt with, and give the US something in return.
It is well known that forms of energy, whether it be through oil, uranium or other products, can be used as sources of political power (which is why Russia likes to tie up countries in long-term nuclear power deals through Rosatom).
This would give the US the notion that it now has long-term leverage in some ways.
In short, it is exactly the kind of deal that Trump would appreciate.
This would also explain what has, up until now, been a very muted reaction from our government to what Trump has said.
While officials have responded to the “Afrikaans refugees” and some of Trump’s bluster, generally, it’s been muted.
It might well be that instead, they hope to avoid all of the noise and the fuss that Trump thrives on and are focusing on this deal instead.
This would be a rational choice and would allow Ramaphosa to claim some kind of victory.
However, it would be foolish to try to aim for a long-term reset of our relations with the Trump administration.
Trump has made it clear that attacking South Africa is a long-term project – we are the embodiment of what he has campaigned against.
Bluntly, we are too useful a tool for him to give up now.
This means Ramaphosa might hope only for some short-term wins in this meeting.
It is a sign of matters that the best possible outcome may simply be that there is no shouting or insults.
Just a calm meeting might well be a hugely positive outcome from this encounter. DM