There can be no underestimating the depth of feeling among ANC leaders about the DA.
During his press conference on Tuesday, the ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, accused the DA of lying and said the party wanted to “divide government and confuse the public”.
This has been matched by some of the DA’s public comments, which have been insulting to the ANC.
Both parties have — unnecessarily — been antagonising each other. As previously mentioned, it’s an indication of how little our politics has changed in the months since last year’s elections.
Mbalula said the ANC would use the next five days and the negotiations about the Budget to speak to parties in the coalition and outside of the coalition.
It seems as if the ANC has turned the clock back to the period immediately after last year’s elections, when parties had just 14 days to decide whether to join the coalition.
It was a time pregnant with possibility, when anything could happen.
A similar scenario is playing out now, except that what happened during those last coalition negotiations might well inform what happens this time around.
Read more: ANC’s fallout with DA escalates as Ramaphosa pushes back on business pressure
Last year, MK and the EFF made it clear they would not work with the ANC while Cyril Ramaphosa was President, which forced the ANC to stop negotiating with them.
Working with former president Jacob Zuma’s MK is probably still a stretch too far for the ANC, but the EFF may change its approach, with its leader, Julius Malema, seeking a return to the spotlight after losing some power and influence.
While that would be bad for the ANC in the longer run, some people in the party, including Deputy President Paul Mashatile, appear keener to work with the EFF than the DA.
However, Mbalula confirmed at Tuesday’s press conference that the ANC had asked Malema to tell his party to abstain from last week’s vote on the fiscal framework and that he refused.
As News24 reported, Mbalula went further, saying that the EFF voted with the DA because it wanted “to remove the ANC surgically”.
This could lead to some in the ANC arguing against the inclusion of the EFF in the coalition government.
ANC’s options
The question of who to include and who to exclude is intertwined with the ANC’s leadership question and its elective conference in December 2027.
This is surely one of the reasons Mashatile has been so publicly assertive in recent days. If he prevails and removes the DA from the coalition, then he and his followers would be strengthened and Ramaphosa, should he remain in office, would be fundamentally weakened.
Of course, were the EFF and MK to successfully reiterate their demand that Ramaphosa leave office, that would change the nature of the government completely.
However, if the DA ends up back in the coalition, even under different conditions, it would indicate there is no broad support within the ANC for Mashatile and his views.
Those tasked with managing the ANC face big problems with potentially devastating consequences.
It was often remarked in the days after the formation of the national coalition last year that there had not been a substantive debate in ANC structures about who to work with and who to avoid.
While this was mainly because of the time pressure (the Constitution only gives Parliament 14 days to elect a president after the proclamation of the election), it also meant that a messy internal debate was avoided.
Bluntly, if the ANC had to consult all of its structures and members on whether it should work with the DA, the EFF or MK, the debate could continue forever — it would be very damaging to allow this conversation to get out of hand.
This might be one of the reasons the ANC has given itself just five days to manage the situation. While part of that may be because of the timetable of the Budget process, it seems impossible to manage this in just five days, and the process is likely to be extended.
Another risk is that the ANC brings new partners to government who are much more successful at undermining the ANC than the DA has tried to be.
Malema and Zuma have shown themselves to be capable of undermining the ANC from within. Having them or their representatives in the Cabinet would allow them to do this much more effectively.
Read more: Maimane advocates for unity: Bosa seeks collaboration to reverse VAT hike and foster growth
DA’s dilemma
The DA has to make important decisions.
It is still not clear why its leader, John Steenhuisen, decided that VAT was the hill on which he was prepared to allow the coalition to die.
While the DA’s frustration with the ANC was understandable (as was the ANC’s frustration with the DA), and VAT would hurt poorer people, it was still a strange fight to pick.
Now, the DA has to decide whether to effectively concede it was wrong (and possibly even accept a reduced role in the coalition, with fewer Cabinet posts) or to stay outside.
Read more: DA says it is ‘willing to speak to ANC to get a workable Budget on the table’
This can divide the DA, as it is clear from the public comments of some of its members that they do not want to work with the ANC.
The events of the last three weeks raise questions about Steenhuisen’s judgment and whether he has the strategic grasp necessary to manage this complex situation.
Opportunity for stability
However, it is also possible that this “reset” will lead to a much more productive coalition.
Mbalula said on Tuesday that the coalition “must be governed by rules” and not just the statement of intent.
This reveals that he and the ANC have (correctly) diagnosed one of the major problems with the coalition: it did not have proper dispute resolution mechanisms.
While the original statement of intent was drawn up under intense time pressure, there appeared to be no appetite on the part of either the ANC or the DA to craft something more substantive after it was signed.
Long before last year’s election, many experts pointed out that the chances of a coalition succeeding would be much higher if there was a binding coalition agreement.
Mbalula is correct that a coalition must be “governed by rules”. This could open the window to a coalition that has an agreement — “rules” — that will guide it through disputes.
That is the very narrow silver lining of this situation.
Our politics is again in an uncertain space. The next few days will see comments from parties that might well be inconsistent with each other.
However, the fundamental interests of the various parties remain the same.
For the ANC and the DA, despite their obvious differences and the high emotions of the moment, the longer-term interest of governing in a broad moderate coalition might still override everything else. DM