Southern African leaders are expected to decide on Friday, 31 January to withdraw their military force from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after its bloody battle with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels over the past week.
But the Southern African Development Community (SADC ) wants the withdrawal of its SADC Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC) to be “orderly”, and to be preceded by a ceasefire and the relaunch of credible peace talks among the main eastern DRC belligerents – mainly Kinshasa, Kigali and the M23.
It fears that a “haphazard” withdrawal will seriously damage the credibility of SADC and therefore jeopardise any future military interventions, Daily Maverick was told.
Protesters outside the damaged Rwandan Embassy during a march in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, 28 January 2025. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Chris Milosi)
SADC announced on Wednesday that it would hold an extraordinary summit in Harare on Friday “on the security situation in the eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo”. The meeting would be chaired by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, current SADC chairperson.
How to get SAMIDRC out of the country in an orderly way would be the main item on the agenda, a Pretoria source said.
Daily Maverick understands that DRC – which originally called for SADC military intervention in 2023 – this week asked SADC to reinforce SAMIDRC to take on M23/Rwanda again. “But no one is keen on that. There’s no appetite for that,” the Pretoria source told us.
“We need to get all parties to agree to a ceasefire. And then you need some kind of roadmap for peace talks. And once you have those talks resuming in earnest with a ceasefire in place, then you can start that gradual withdrawal.”
SADC failure
However SADC spins it though, it has failed to meet its objectives in DRC and any withdrawal seems likely to look like a retreat.
SAMIDRC, comprising South African, Tanzanian and Malawian troops, deployed in the country in December 2023 with a robust mandate to defeat M23 and other rebel groups.
But after earlier losses, nine South African soldiers and three Malawians were killed and many more injured trying to halt a major offensive by M23/Rwandans against the provincial capital of Goma in two days late last week.
A fire set by protesters burns outside the damaged French Embassy during a march in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, on 28 January 2025. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Chris Milosi)
Another three SANDF soldiers were killed in the crossfire of an exchange of mortar fire by the M23/Rwandans and the DRC army at Goma airport on Monday. One of those injured last week also died.
M23/Rwanda now holds Goma, though there have been reports of isolated skirmishes with DRC forces in parts of the city. Goma is a big prize and potential bargaining chip for M23 and Rwanda, which also captured some other smaller towns along the way.
SANDF isolated
Despite a fierce fight, the SANDF soldiers are now isolated, possibly trapped in their bases, at Goma and in Sake some 23km to the northwest. They negotiated a truce with M23 on Monday to enable both sides to collect their dead, according to one official, but their situation remains unclear. The Malawian and Tanzanian contingents seem to be in a similar predicament.
At least seven of the SA soldiers killed were part of SAMIDRC and at least two were part of the UN peacekeeping force Monusco. The SANDF has not said on which mission the remaining four were. A Uruguayan soldier in Monusco also died in the fighting last week.
On Tuesday night, the troika of SADC’s security organ met virtually to decide how to respond to the defeat of SAMIDRC. Its recommendations will be discussed at the full in-person summit in Harare on Friday.
Daily Maverick was told that it was likely the full summit would decide to withdraw SAMIDRC, though this would be done in an orderly way, not least to preserve trust in the organisation.
The Pretoria source pointed out that SADC had in December 2024 extended SAMIDRC’s mission by a year, so it was due to leave in December this year. That meant the force should begin gradually withdrawing from about mid-2025.
Men believed to be military contractors wait at the La Corniche border crossing point between Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda at Gisenyi, Rwanda, on 29 January 2025, before crossing into Rwanda. The M23 rebel group in the DRC have taken control of parts of Goma which lies close to the border of Rwanda. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Moise Niyonzima)
But the withdrawal should take place parallel to a formal peace process and only after an active ceasefire was in place that was being honoured by all concerned parties.
“And so you are able to then say the threat to human lives, innocent people, is significantly reduced.
“If there is a peace process under way, then you can start … gradual withdrawal.”
For this to happen, though, diplomatic efforts would have to be intensified, the Pretoria source said, so that when SAMIDRC withdrew, some headway would have been made in peace negotiations.
“But the bottom line is, the reality is, you cannot afford a haphazard withdrawal.” A haphazard withdrawal would undermine trust and credibility in SADC’s ability to intervene in the future, he said.
It is a moot point, though, whether that has not already happened.
‘SA’s regional power has ended’
“This is the end of South Africa as a regional power for the next decade at least,” Darren Olivier, defence expert at the African Defence Review, told Daily Maverick.
And it is also not clear if Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who now calls the shots, will agree to the gradual withdrawal of SAMIDRC that SADC wants.
The Pretoria source suggested that SAMIDRC should not be blamed for the defeat. It was pointed out to him that the same three SADC countries, SA, Tanzania and Malawi, had defeated the M23 in 2013 as part of a Monusco unit, and driven it out of DRC. But the source said this time it was different because Monusco had earlier begun withdrawing from eastern DRC “so it did not have the capacity it had had earlier…”
“Number two, the FARDC, the Congolese Army, folded in an unexpected way. They surrendered, abandoned their positions, so that didn’t happen previously.
“So the first line of defence basically fell apart, which is the FARDC. And the SAMIDRC was never the first line of defence. And so remember that it was always the case of being there to support them in protecting civilians in particular.”
‘No military solution’ possible – Ramaphosa
The source said President Cyril Ramaphosa had been insisting for some time in conversations with leaders such as Kagame, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Angolan President Joao Lourenço that there was ultimately no military solution to the crisis which could only be resolved by talks. In part this was because SA could not afford the cost.
“We’re obviously pressing President Tshisekedi on the reality that ultimately he will have to sit down and talk to M23,” the source said. The peace negotiations which Lourenço has been managing led to a ceasefire in August last year. But they broke down in December because Tshisekedi insisted on negotiating with Rwanda only as he regarded the M23 as just a proxy force.
Rwanda refused because it insisted that the M23 – which represents ethnic Tutsi Congolese – had genuine grievances which Kinshasa should address. These included being persecuted by the FDLR armed rebel group originally established by Rwandan Hutus who fled their country after participating in the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis.
Hopes pinned on Ruto intervention
The Pretoria source said he hoped that Kenyan President William Ruto could persuade Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Kagame to sit down and negotiate. Ruto called a summit of the East African Community on Wednesday in the hope of doing that.
“And we’re hoping that will then kick-start what will be regular engagements between the two of them,” the Pretoria source said, “but ultimately they have to bring M23 into that discussion.”
Meanwhile in Brussels, Anouar El Anouni, European Union Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told Daily Maverick’s Ethan van Diemen there was a consensus among the 27 member states of the EU to condemn both the M23 and Rwanda for their renewed offensive, including the capture of Goma.
He said that in the foreign affairs council on Monday, member states had “condemned the escalation and expressed their readiness to take measures against those that endanger peace and stability in the DRC”. He said that on Tuesday the peace and security committee had “considered all the tools at its disposal to hold accountable those that are responsible for sustaining armed conflict, instability and insecurity in the DRC”. DM