“Quite remarkable,” noted a South African-based Western diplomat about the difficulty Washington experienced in attending the recent Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Expo at the moment that a Neustrashimy-class Russian frigate and a support ship docked at the Simon’s Town Naval Base.
He was wrong of course. It was all too predictable on recent form.
Now, under the cover of the goodwill generated by the Government of National Unity (GNU), the ANC is deepening its ties with the autocratic world, doubling down on its friendship with Russia and Iran.
The departure from office of the international relations and cooperation minister Naledi Pandor, and the appointment of Ronald Lamola, seen as less of an ideological hardliner, was taken to usher in a reset of South Africa’s alignment with autocrats, a posture which was beginning to seriously risk the country’s ties with major trading partners in the West.
But, after a period of toned-down rhetoric, the hardliners in the ANC appear to have found their footing and are now driving a return to alignment with Russia and a more partisan approach to the Middle East.
The symbolism is hard to ignore. The docking of the frigate, the eponymous lead ship of the Neustrashimy-class, Pennant No 772, occurred even as Russia continued with its violent colonisation of Ukraine amid continued global criticism. The largest and most modern anti-submarine warfare frigate in the Russian Navy, the Neustrashimy has been employed extensively on defence diplomacy missions, including off Somalia and to Cuba and Venezuela.
The frigate is said to be in South African waters for the SA Navy Festival. Amid global isolation and sanctions, this represents a strong statement of support by South Africa and threatens to reawaken the criticism which followed the docking of the Russian munitions ship Lady R at the naval base at the end of 2022 under the cover of darkness and for purposes that remain shrouded in murk.
Now there are rumours of a repeat flying visit, quite literally, by Tupolev Tu-160s “White Swans” following their no-show at the AAD, as part of a boost to BRICS’ diplomacy later this month. The Tu-160s, which visited South Africa in October 2019, have been responsible for the launching of cruise missiles in Ukraine, and its crew are regarded by Kyiv as war criminals.
The Russian flirtation is set to go up a gear when President Vladimir Putin, now the chairperson of BRICS, hosts a summit in Kazan, Russia, from 22–24 October. The choice of Kazan as the host city is no doubt informed by the fact that it is a substantial distance from the Ukrainian frontline and will not be disturbed by the sound of missiles, drones or artillery, creating the illusion that Russia is at peace.
A low point
This normalisation of an autocratic state which is the author of the world’s gravest act of war since 1945 represents a low point for BRICS, which attempts to cast itself as a pragmatic alliance.
Putin must be positively beaming at the prospect of lording it over BRICS following his humiliating virtual attendance at the South African summit the previous year.
He said: “On January 1, Russia was passed the baton of the BRICS chairmanship, an association which, according to the decision adopted by the 15th BRICS Summit in August 2022, now includes 10 countries. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS as new full members, which is a strong indication of the growing authority of the association and its role in international affairs.”
Putin is counting on “the growing authority of the association” to lend legitimacy to his invasion of Ukraine and his continued support of malign military regimes and autocrats in Africa.
Brace yourself for an outpouring of Orwellian doublespeak as Russia projects itself as the standard-bearer of freedom and peace.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, who has already mastered the art, said: “I would like to point out that BRICS cooperation in the field of politics and security is free of ideological bias and double standards but is based on respect for the sovereignty of member states and the principle of non-interference in their domestic affairs.”
This is from a country which is firing missiles into the city of its neighbour Ukraine and occupying its territory.
More from Ushakov: “BRICS members are committed to settling differences and disputes through dialogue and consultations and support all efforts that facilitate the peaceful resolutions of crises.
“We seek to contribute to strengthening the system of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and jointly stand for preventing the deployment of weapons and an arms race in space.”
Russia, apparently, is the world’s best hope for global peace.
An interesting new term is now in use by Ushakov and others. They speak of BRICS forming part of the “global majority”. It’s a curious turn of phrase for countries, some of which actively suppress citizens and hold sham elections which do not reflect the true feelings of their domestic majorities. Or don’t hold elections at all.
ANC doublespeak
The ANC may have lost its domestic majority but identifies with this “global majority” and engages in its own doublespeak.
At the United Nations, President Cyril Ramaphosa said: “Today democracy flourishes in South Africa. We have a progressive Constitution, an entrenched human rights culture and strong institutions. We have laws to advance equality and programmes to protect society’s most marginalised.”
The ANC is deliberately ignoring that it is in a shared-power arrangement with parties which do not share its infatuation with Putin. The payback for this friendship appears significant enough for it to ignore the global implications and the strains this places on the GNU.
The GNU has reinstated a measure of confidence in South Africa’s overall direction. However, this is fragile and could easily be undone by reckless international politicking.
A cosy relationship with Russia and the autocrats not only risks South Africa’s trade and investment ties with the West, but may conceivably open Pretoria to international legal action, or even military action should Ukraine wish to widen its strikes at its invader.
Anyone for a sea-drone in Simon’s Town?
At the end of October, Ramaphosa will find himself in Kazan. The BRICS summit represents an excellent opportunity for him to double down on the GNU in favour of democracy, human rights and strong institutions. Don’t hold your breath. DM
Ray Hartley and Greg Mills are with The Brenthurst Foundation