There can be no doubt that the decision by the Tshwane ANC to first bring the motion to remove the DA’s Cilliers Brink as mayor, and then to vote to remove him, is part of the first set of crises for the new national coalition government.
But this also means that the way the situation is resolved may indicate how the top governing parties may resolve differences between them over the next few years in national government.
This makes the negotiations between them both vitally important and seriously complicated. In reality, these talks are about several positions across different spheres of government.
Why it matters
An important part of these talks is about who holds power and where; and it matters.
For example, if Tshwane cannot elect a new mayor before next week’s deadline, technically the province of Gauteng is supposed to intervene. The Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs MEC in Gauteng is Jacob Mamabolo.
He is from the ANC, but also the SACP, which has been vocally opposed to the formation of the national coalition government. This means Mamabolo might be tempted to intervene in Tshwane in line with the SACP’s interests.
The DA would claim this is what happened during the pandemic when the Gauteng provincial government took Tshwane into administration. Eventually, the Constitutional Court ruled that Gauteng had overreached its powers, making the decision illegal.
At the same time, the ANC will surely have reason to question the motives behind some of the comments made by the DA.
Chair of the DA’s Federal Council Helen Zille has claimed, both in public and in a letter to the ANC, that the party’s Gauteng province is refusing to accept the authority of Luthuli House. Gauteng ANC leader (and Premier) Panyaza Lesufi has angrily refuted that.
While Zille’s claim may be true, and several analysts have made the same point, she may have other reasons for saying this so publicly.
Division
Any negotiator in a situation like this would try to weaken their opponent. If she can provoke a division, or just the perception of one, that would strengthen the DA’s negotiating position.
One of the more interesting parts of the DA’s strategy has been to insist that Brink be restored to the position of Tshwane mayor.
In short, they appear to be saying that there can be no deal without him as mayor.
But that would go against an ANC principle (which has been ignored several times) that the party with the most seats in council should provide the mayor. In other words, the DA is saying that despite having fewer seats than the ANC in the council, Brink should still be the mayor.
While there does not appear to be much justification for this, the DA may be trying to make a greater point, which is related to the national coalition.
If the ANC and the DA do come to a deal in Tshwane, it would be a major step towards the full “cascading” of the national coalition into local government. And what we see in national government could be the pattern that we see in many councils around the country.
The DA may wish to avoid that pattern always resulting in the ANC having the top leadership position. In other words, Zille may be trying to create an opportunity where the DA has the top leadership position, and thus is not seen to be the junior partner to the ANC, even if numerically weaker.
And even if Zille does not succeed in breaking this pattern in Tshwane, there is no down side for her. She will have shown her voters that she is still fighting for them and laying the ground for the next round of negotiations around the next council, where the DA can again insist on providing the mayor because it did not do so in Tshwane.
Caution
While the DA may be pursuing this strategy, the ANC also has to tread carefully.
First, it has to guard against the perception that Lesufi and the Gauteng ANC are in fact rebelling against Luthuli House. If these negotiations do break down and the ANC does not work with the DA, this perception will only grow.
But perhaps the major problem for the ANC is that without the DA it will have to work with other parties. And it seems unlikely that the FF+ will work with the ANC (the FF+ has supported the DA in Tshwane). This means that because Action SA does not have enough seats, the ANC might have to work with the EFF, or form a minority administration.
Working with the EFF can have difficult consequences for the ANC, especially considering that the two were unable to find each other in national government.
Internal problems
In the middle of this is the fact that the ANC may have internal problems which can be used by the DA.
One of the major differences between the ANC and the DA in this negotiation is that while it is clear the DA wants to elect Brink as mayor, it is not certain who the ANC wants.
It has been reported there could be up to four contenders in the ANC for the position. Considering how this has led to intra-ANC violence in Tshwane in the past, this could be a very difficult situation for the party to deal with.
As the ANC cannot allow such violence, or even the hint of division to happen again, Luthuli House might even decide the best option is in fact to allow the DA to occupy the position of mayor.
For the DA, just knowing that this may be a possibility is a useful negotiating card.
At the same time, while these parties are negotiating for short-term gain, they dare not take their eye off the long term.
If the DA is seen to be too weak in the face of the ANC, voters will punish it. If the ANC is seen to be holding on to power for power’s sake, and to the detriment of voters, it too could suffer.
Despite the fact both parties have lost support in Tshwane in the past few years, they may both wish to focus on what should be the main goal, which is how to win power outright in the local elections in just two years’ time. DM