Last week, speaking to Bhekisisa Centre for Health Journalism, Health Minister Dr Aaron Motsoaledi said that his government would implement the NHI and would ban private medical aid schemes, even if it meant the end of the coalition government.
In essence, he was saying that banning private medical aid schemes was, to him at least, more important than the ANC staying in power. It could even be read as him saying he was prepared to risk losing his position as minister (if the DA left the coalition and the government collapsed), so strong was his dedication to this ideology.
This may seem like an extreme position, and could almost be seen as Motsoaledi daring Ramaphosa.
But, in fact, it is just another symptom of our current situation.
Already several DA ministers have made claims about the ministries they have taken over from ANC members, only for those ANC members to directly contradict the DA ministers’ claims.
Just this week, National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza felt compelled to publicly tell Steenhuisen that he was wrong about a large amount of money he said had gone missing in the Department of Agriculture.
In the first week of the coalition government, new DA Public Works Minister Dean Macpherson stated that R300-million had been stolen had been stolen from his department during the previous administration. While he did point out that an investigation into this theft had been started by his predecessor, the ANC’s Sihle Zikalala, for some it may have looked like he was making a political point.
The DA’s response to the Daily Maverick and News 24 revelation that Justice Minister Thembi Simelane may be implicated in the VBS scandal was also interesting.
The party’s justice spokesperson, Glynnis Breytenbach, did not call for her to resign. Instead, she said Simelane should be called to Parliament to account for or explain her actions.
This suggests a deliberate measure of calibration, both expressing the outrage that the DA’s constituency would be feeling and providing the ANC (and Simelane) with space to deal with the issue.
The DA too has surely made some decisions that will anger the ANC.
The appointment of Roman Cabanac as Steenhuisen’s chief of staff, thus putting on the government payroll a person who has delighted in making racist comments, will surely frustrate many in the ANC.
For some, it might well call into question the DA’s stated commitment to equality.
‘Dualism’
Former DA leader Tony Leon, who has more experience than most in working with the ANC (after leading the DA he was appointed by an ANC president as our ambassador to Argentina), suggested this week that members of the coalition would have to follow a policy of what he called “dualism” to manage some of the inherent contradictions involved.
He is, obviously, correct but this was always going to be the case and had been generally accepted already.
For example, the PAC leader, current Minister of Land Reform and Rural Development Mzwanele Nhyontso, has said he still wants to expropriate land without compensation.
For the moment, the FF+, with its leader in the position of Correctional Services minister, has appeared to tolerate his statements.
The most likely outcome from this Cabinet appears to be a large amount of noise, some sniping, and possibly little actual progress – it seems that each minister will push in their party’s direction until they reach some kind of limit.
This means the real question to ask is, where is the limit for each minister? For example, has Motsoaledi gone too far with his claim that the NHI will be implemented no matter what? Is the appointment of Cabanac too much for the ANC to stomach?
Serving interests
While each of these cases will lead to some kind of public speculation (a big part of a political journalist’s job is to look for points of difference between politicians), in fact the coalition will probably be fairly durable.
This is for a very simple reason; the parties will stay in the coalition for as long as it serves their interests.
And this will probably provide the limits up against which ministers from other parties cannot push.
In other words, Motsoaledi’s words about the NHI can probably be tolerated. But any legislation that seriously sought to ban medical aids would probably lead to the DA’s supporters almost forcing it to leave the coalition.
Cabanac’s appointment may be tolerated for now, but if Steenhuisen were to ever use the kind of language that Cabanac has used, the ANC might refuse to continue with him.
This means that only those programmes with very broad agreement can be implemented. And that there will be no radical change in our society.
Centrist politics
There is much that is good about this. It means that decisions are being made in the middle of our politics, not at the extremes. And it means that most government programmes will have the broad support of a diversity of voters.
Unfortunately, our society is also in need of radical change. Nothing less than that will solve our massive inequality, poverty and unemployment. And this means that the chances of any radical change being implemented have receded.
In the meantime though, there may be some space for certain ministers in certain positions to make some changes.
In the previous government, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Ebrahim Patel came to have an important influence, despite having an understated public profile. He did not do many interviews and only spoke in public when necessary. But he was still able to use his office to have an outsize impact.
Some ministers may be able to use this example, hide behind the noise, and quietly implement certain policies. In many cases they will have the legal power to do this, and as long as they do not make too much noise they might be fairly successful.
For example, as Business Day editor Alexander Parker recently pointed out, the DA’s Minister of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries Dion George suddenly has a huge amount of power because of the newly signed Climate Change Act.
This means that one of the real lessons of the coalition government may be to look beyond the noise and examine the actions of those who remain quiet – while those who make a lot of the noise may not be achieving very much at all. DM