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DisInfo Central: The evolution of MK's ‘big lie’ conspiracy theory about SA’s 2024 elections

Months before the elections, the MK party began attacking the credibility of the Electoral Commission of South Africa, laying the groundwork for the ‘big lie’ theory.
DisInfo Central: The evolution of MK's ‘big lie’ conspiracy theory about SA’s 2024 elections

In the lead-up to the 2024 South African elections, a conspiracy theory alleging vote-rigging gained traction on social media platforms.

This phenomenon is not unique to South Africa. Questioning the integrity of elections is a tactic seen globally, notably used recently by figures such as Donald Trump in the US and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. It undermines public trust in democratic processes at critical moments when countries are most vulnerable.

Confusingly, the party claiming the elections were rigged, the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, emerged as the biggest winner, while the incumbent ANC, the biggest loser, has accepted the results. In addition, although few expected the ANC to do quite so poorly or the MK party to do quite so well, polls before the elections had predicted outcomes broadly aligned with the final results; which again makes one wonder why the MK party started laying the groundwork to contest the outcome even before South Africans went to the polls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Xr_Sgi3XR8

The genesis of the conspiracy


Months before the elections, the MK party began attacking the credibility of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), laying the groundwork for the “big lie” theory. Their rhetoric intensified, culminating in an incident three days before the vote where MK party members stormed an IEC facility, coinciding with a surge of online claims of tampering.

Independent Media began undermining trust in the IEC through its publications on the same day.

The conspiracy narrative reached a new height when former president Jacob Zuma hinted at potential violence if the IEC announced the results without addressing the rigging claims. This statement further inflamed tensions and drew more attention to the alleged conspiracy. The IEC downplayed this threat, insisting that all discrepancies were a normal part of the process and were unlikely materially to alter the outcome of the elections. It went ahead with the announcement of the results.

Given the long lead-up time, the MK party’s actions appear to be a concerted effort to destabilise South Africa’s democratic institutions, either to increase their bargaining power in the subsequent coalition discussions or to outright subvert South Africa’s democracy for the party’s ethnonationalist agenda.

The spread of the conspiracy


Our systems have picked up more than 150,000 posts about the IEC and vote rigging on social media, which have created widespread uncertainty around the “big lie”. 



The below network captures a sample of those conversations on X (formerly Twitter). These are users discussing terms like “IEC” together with words like “rigged”, “stolen”, etc. It highlights the main users promoting the conspiracy, who tend to fall into two camps: MK party-aligned users, and EFF “ground forces” accounts, which include known paid, anonymous influencers like @AdvBarrryRoux.

big lie conspiracy elections

The conspiracy metastasises


Initially, the EFF did not engage with the conspiracy. They accepted the election results. However, EFF “ground forces” on X are not happy with the party’s stance and began promoting the rigging narrative after the possibility of an ANC-DA coalition emerged. Prominent EFF influencers shared and amplified these claims on X.





big lie conspiracy elections

Indeed, if they get enough momentum, the conspiracy will take on a life of its own and other parties will have no choice but to be swept up in it and forced to take sides. This is how anti-democratic forces work. There is some indication that this is now occurring as other parties sign up to a call for a recount. While it is the right of parties in a democracy to voice their legitimate concerns about elections, it is not clear to what extent these concerns are legitimate. 

What we do know is that the MK party has been working for a long time to seed distrust in the IEC and the outcome of the elections. Will it succeed?

In conclusion, the current situation presents a significant challenge to South Africa’s democracy. The orchestrated efforts by the MK party, bolstered by influential commentators and media, aim to sow doubt and discord. The outcome of this “big lie” conspiracy theory and its impact on South African politics is uncertain. DM

Kyle Findlay runs a data science team whose day job is to help brands and organisations understand why people do what they do through data. He also loves South Africa and tries to use data to make sense of the complex and often confounding country that we live in.

Election quick links



Comments

Malusi Ndungane Jun 3, 2024, 12:39 AM

Fact check: MK is clearly looking to get a bit more traction in KZN to try and get a working majority there. It's a cheap tactic and making threats implying violence is despicable, but trying to make out that this is some sort of function of social media as this piece does is massively exaggerated, at least if the thin 'evidence' printed here is anything to go by. Zuma made his threat on TV ast an official election evenet; should TV be banned? Rumours and lies spread before social media existed and will always spread. Some people believe all ballots are rigged, it's been alleged throughout history and of course sometimes they really are manipulated. The Maverick is part of a campaign to censor social media because it can't cope with the competition. This piece looks like another attempt in that direction. Misinformation? Malformation? Let the reader decide but please no ministry of truth.

craig64 Jun 3, 2024, 08:03 AM

I don't think the author is asking for a ban on social media, but it is a useful too to track trends and even find the genesis of movements. X, and Twitter have been and continue to be used by rogue elements to influence public sentiment. Russian Bots, Iranian Bots, Pro-Palestinian bots, pro Biden or Pro Trump bots have all been used on twitter to shift narrative one way or another

Malusi Ndungane Jun 3, 2024, 02:21 PM

No he's not but the Maverick has published many articles over the past months calling for censorship of social media and this piece feeds into that on very thin evidence. My point is that systematic lying is not exclusive either to social media or this era of history. The biggest lies are told opn TV and in the mainstream press. In the end only the reader can decide. The road to a 'minsitry of truth' which some commentators on this thread think is a good idea, is a frightening and dangerous one.

Neil Tabraham Jun 3, 2024, 08:49 AM

It would seem to be you trying to silence those who attempt to highlight those who seek to subvert the democratic process. Perhaps a 'ministry of truth' is what's needed to ensure social media doesn't become a tool of the subverters.

Malusi Ndungane Jun 3, 2024, 02:39 PM

I'm not 'trying to silence' anyone. Opinion is free and should remain so, mine, yours and the author of this piece.

tarmstrong141 Jun 3, 2024, 03:56 PM

Ministry of truth from politicians? They don't know the meaning of the word.

jeffp.pill Jun 3, 2024, 01:47 AM

There are no conspiracies but allegations made that the author fails to completely refute. He, instead copies the American left wing media & blows hot air failing to investigate the allegation & provides evidence of these allegations being false. One can also call this author a conspiracy theorist for his claims. While he tries to invoke Trump, he fails to draw a comparison between the blackout in America & our system blackout during a crucial period of our elections. This incident is not properly explained. Neither was the public provided with a snapshot of the results immediately prior to the failure & immediately after it came online. The author must stop spreading his conspiracies with evidence. Investigate the system failure & then make his claims providing evidence with numbers to refute there was no rigging.

John Brodrick Jun 3, 2024, 07:57 AM

"The author must stop spreading his conspiracies with evidence". Surelyyou mean that those who allege conspiracies MUST provide evidence?

William Kelly Jun 3, 2024, 08:14 AM

Binary argument. You claim vote rigging without evidence and then demand evidence that there was no vote rigging! Bwaa haa haa!

Neil Tabraham Jun 3, 2024, 08:50 AM

Exactly.

tarmstrong141 Jun 3, 2024, 03:59 PM

Difficult to prove a negative.

Murray Heymann Jun 3, 2024, 08:46 AM

O look, a Russian Bot!

Peterjack.taylor2 Jun 3, 2024, 01:58 PM

There is no election rigging but allegations made that Jeff Pillay fails to refute completely.

jbest67 Jun 3, 2024, 02:30 AM

Such things as highlighted in this article relating to allegations of election rigging are good in a way and will help strengthen our democracy. It has become a norm for members of the ruling elites globally and locally to distabilize their own systems of rule . Maybe it's a new emerging phenomenon to confuse the gullible masses in order to reinforce the system or what, I don't know. I am just a normal citizen myself, maybe it's a new play book. But if the system is not strong enough to withstand such stuff as MK allegations then it must fall and a new one , if at all must replace. I believe in the strength of our democracy to emerge from this new post ANC era even stronger. ANC is no longer capable of guiding the process because of its own internal organisational structural challenges and all the rest of it. So a new centre of gravity must of necessity come into being to fill the vacuum left by the aanc . Maybe I am this new centre, and you can call me ghost protocol, because I am a ghost of Christmas that never was. Or the ghost of a parallel universe Christmas. A Christmas that took place in a parallel universe and is now interfering with this universe in this timeline in what is called a quantum entanglement in a string theory type of equation. But I digress. So, yeah beware the ides of March etcetera etcetera

Francois Louw Jun 3, 2024, 03:52 AM

Listening to Mike Baker on the Joe Rogan podcast you start getting a feel for the extent of the foreign government (Iran, Putin) funded disinformation campaigns on social media with a large percentage of those posts being compiled with the help of AI bots. This is a “new” frontier that we don’t understand. Hugely powerful and influential!

Mike Schroeder Jun 3, 2024, 06:28 PM

Ohhh Joe Rogan -- now there's an absolutely believable source of truth ... NOT!!

Eddie Joubert Jun 3, 2024, 06:20 AM

This Country was successful because it was built by both Black and White persons. I hope now we could do it again with a coalition government !

Richard Bryant Jun 3, 2024, 06:44 AM

Seems like the pro MK /putin bots are hard at work. The 2 first ‘comments’ made by Malusi Ndungane and Jeff Pillay seem quite odd for a couple of reasons. One, I have never seen them comment before. Two both were made in an attempt to discredit the author and DM and 3 the time they were made being at 00.39 and 01.47 literally hours after this article was first published. Now I certainly respect everyone’s right to free speech but if these people are paid putin bots I give DM full permission to take whatever steps necessary to bot proof their newspaper.

Denise Smit Jun 3, 2024, 07:25 AM

Please do what he asks for , and get IT people to check your system , their is lot of blotting out commenters they do not like by these bots on your comment facility. This is not the first time but part of the forces at work for the different agendas. Mike Baxter uses a proxy name. Should the rule not be to give comment with your real name and not hide behind other names

Denise Smit Jun 3, 2024, 07:54 AM

James Baxter

Paul T Jun 3, 2024, 07:46 AM

Yes, I too picked this up. Being a long time reader and commenter on DM I haven't seen these 2 commentators before, I smell something fishy.

Johan Buys Jun 3, 2024, 06:58 AM

There is zero chance of correcting social media content or having facebook, whatapp, twitter, etc take any corrective action. The law is pointless - a case would take two years. That leaves the only option : use the same social media to expose and counter misinformation.

Kenneth Arundel Jun 3, 2024, 08:14 AM

All fair and well but we as humans tend to gravitate toward a conspiracy rather than fact. It takes us out of the hum drum of our existence and poses alternatives to whatever boredom we may find ourselves in. Most of us are simply too afraid to upset the apple cart and react on platforms such as this because they are safe, I include myself in this equation and have little or no knowledge on how to cast my humble influence to a wider net than my immediate social network. Point being that if one has to compete with those that fear monger we need ourselves to be fearless and most of us are not.

tarmstrong141 Jun 3, 2024, 04:02 PM

Agreed.

Lynda Tyrer Jun 3, 2024, 06:59 AM

Makes you wonder which party actually did any rigging and I doubt its those "older longer standing ones". Unfortunately social media is full of gullible people who if told the moon was made of cheese actually believe it. Some of us want this country to be a success others dont care.

Malcolm McManus Jun 3, 2024, 07:02 AM

Typical of the MK. What difference will a recount make anyway. Very unlikely to make a meaningful difference. Just the normal posturing. Watching the press briefings of the EFF, what is very noticeable is how the members of the panel find everything a big joke, giggling, sneering etc like kids in a playground. These people are unable to behave like mature adults at probably the most important and significant event for the country in 30 years. How can anyone take them seriously. The MK and EFF have no place in a coalition. Hopefully they wont be part of a coalition. The good news about this election is that the EFF and ANC have been extremely humbled. It was made obvious with a rather sheepish looking Julius and Fikile at their respective press briefings. None of them could come to grips with their failure. They both evaded and distracted from the questions they had been asked and couldn't string together cohesive sentences. Meaningless mumble. At least the ANC accepted the election outcome and appear not to have rigged the election which was my fear. I had previously not ruled this out but am glad I was wrong. It appears Cyril has recognized his, and his parties failures and seems to accept he needs to work together with other parties, hopefully the DA and MPC parties excluding the EFF and MK to improve South Africa. Certainly and interesting week or two ahead.

Temba Morewa Jun 3, 2024, 07:18 AM

And DM never did anything to improve the credibility... The reality is that the ICE process, although largely credible, was not flawless! For various reasons lots of voters are not happy. These votes would not have changed the outcome - but who cares - certainly not the media!

Gerhard Vermaak Jun 3, 2024, 11:25 AM

The credibility of the media one chooses to follow varies; one might opt for Independent newspapers for light-hearted content, or other outlets recognized for their historical credibility and investigative journalism. However, it's notable that only about 58% (approximately 16 million) of the registered voters cast their ballots out of the 27 million registered, considering South Africa has an adult population of 40 million eligible to vote. The question arises: who is truly dissatisfied? Is it the 24 million who chose not to vote, or the "many voters"? In essence, does this refer to a portion of the 16 million who did vote. Yet, the emphasis on presenting factual information seems to be lost, especially among commentators who prefer to make unfounded claims based on conversations with acquaintances.

jsiebrits Jun 3, 2024, 04:52 PM

IM does light-hearted content? Nicest thing anybody has said about them for years.

Old Man Jun 3, 2024, 07:42 AM

Who are MK/Zuma's benefactors. The benefactors would see the demise of the ANC because corruption would be a major Election theme, so would Russia back their favourite corrupt son. So all help by Putin will go in this direction (I want Nuclear ). The Master of rigged elections is Putin. The March 15-17 presidential election was the most rigged in Russia's modern history, according to evidence published by election experts, observers, and media. Estimates of vote rigging range from at least 22 million votes to about 31.6 million votes, without taking into account the online voting and the election at gunpoint in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. If these results are included, voting fraud could have amounted to up to around 40 million votes, or 46% of the people who allegedly voted. So who better than Putin to direct his team to assist Zuma.

Neil Parker Jun 3, 2024, 07:50 AM

The "Big Lie" in America and the "Big Lie" in South Africa. Same forces at work. Zuma's party did better than expected and the EFF is on par. In fact all the result are pretty much "on par" if one accepts that Zuma's gains would be largely the ANC's losses. So the "Big Lie" is just mischief making rhetoric.

tarmstrong141 Jun 3, 2024, 04:06 PM

True.

gaynor.journ Jun 3, 2024, 08:06 AM

Why is everyone ignoring the very important fact that the Court ruled Zuma unfit to stand for election due to his criminal record. MK votes should therefore be reduced to zero. Or will his criminal record merely be an accolade when he joins the rest of the criminals in parliament?

thenains Jun 3, 2024, 08:09 AM

I'm reminded of a little book entitled "Mere Christianity, written by CS Lewis, author of the very well known children's books, "The Chronicles of Narnia", where he addresses the claims that Jesus made to be God. In it, he says that there are logically only 3 responses or deductions available to people considering the claims, viz., - they are true; - they are made by someone on the same level as one who claims to be a poached egg, i.e. one bereft of their senses; or, - they are false. These same options are open to anyone considering the claims of MK, which, essentially are the claims of Jacob Zuma. Firstly, I must accept, despite the leanings I have to consider otherwise, that Jacob Zuma does not believe that he is a poached egg. A rotten egg, possibly, but poached egg not likely. The second option open to me is that Jacob Zuma is telling the truth. Well, I won't waste time considering that as an option. The only alternative, therefore, it's that Jacob Zuma is being extremely economical with the truth. Based on previous events, I must conclude that Jacob Zuma is an adherent of another party, probably even another family, a son of the deceiver who, as Tonto put it, speaks with forked tongue! Interesting, Satan is portrayed as a snake in the garden of Eden, one with a forked tongue who seeks to lead others astray with a clever, but certainly not wise, mixture of truth and lies, just enough truth to catch men and women who want to hear things that pander to their pride.

Confucious Says Jun 3, 2024, 08:16 AM

Showerhead's been doing this for years. First, he attacks the judiciary when things don't go his way, it's a conspiracy against him. Then he pays a British company to coin the term "white monopoly capital" which he tries to sow dissent amongst the people, but the plan backfires when it comes to light that its just a paid-for ad campaign. Now he attacks the IEC so that when things don't go his way (again), he has someone to blame. Same poepol, same trends, same voters.

Derek Taylor Jun 3, 2024, 08:56 AM

Don't forget his venture into canning the Media. One move was appointing Cloudy the clown at the SABC. Another was the Gupta brothers TV news channel. However, this whole anti media project, Zuma failed to pull through. The media freedom is what has saved the country I believe. Be sure there are some media houses still singing Zuma praise.

Jehan Bektir Jun 3, 2024, 10:33 AM

I would have thought the last person to get himself involved in disputes involving numbers, would be Zuma. Remember his priceless confusion with a six digit number?

William Kelly Jun 3, 2024, 08:22 AM

Social media is an echo chamber for those that cannot think for themselves. The word here is 'sheeple' and those pulling the AI bot strings know it. It amazes me that actually the good guys refuse to stoop to this level, and run counter propaganda. I suppose that is their choice and they get to live with the same consequences we all do. Interesting moral dilemma.

Geoff Coles Jun 3, 2024, 08:54 AM

And when Zuma passes on, who then, surely not this daughter!

Neal Sokay Jun 3, 2024, 08:55 AM

Typical Maskirovka from the Nkandla Chess master

A P Jun 3, 2024, 08:59 AM

Twitter as an organisation has to hold some accountability for providing the rails for the destruction of democracy. They may not fund bot armies or bad faith actors, but they certainly provide them a free ticket to ride their system

jsiebrits Jun 3, 2024, 04:54 PM

Are you hoping for Elon Musk, with his distorted understanding of free speech, to do the right thing?

Constantiaroofi Jun 3, 2024, 09:45 AM

Please no long stories…

David Crossley Jun 3, 2024, 10:30 AM

Why am I not surprised! Zuma is a toxic and devisive individual and should never have become involved in MK in a perfect world. He nearly brought this country to its knees during his 9-year reign of incompetence. However, he is allowed to compete (More's the pity) but he should not be allowed to spread lies and sow seeds of doubt in people's minds.

lourens.bth Jun 3, 2024, 10:40 AM

What do people expect when Zuma and Putin are best friends? Anybody that still does not understand how propaganda works and how it is orchestrated by Russia, needs to wake up. South Africa is just one more target of Russia's international destabilisation campaign in which they identify any regional differences between people and start polarising it. There is always a local winner through their offensive but the FINAL winner is Russia. The locals are merely their puppets or useful idiots. Russia does not give a sh*t for them apart from using them as a handy tool for their own long term goals.

grnorv Jun 3, 2024, 11:11 AM

I have already seen two or three articles posted by IOL claiming that the criticism of Zuma and the MK party is unfounded or racist and that the "lost years" under the Zuma administration was actually a productive and successful time, so it seems a media campaign is already underway to further spread misinformation.

thabaafrica Jun 3, 2024, 11:13 AM

Interesting piece, where do we put these accusations? are they not worth entertaining because of the source? when does wrong actually become wrong? I wish to know how the IEC will action such gross accusations, with evidence already floating around.. I really want to see the impartiality of the institution, even if its being purposefully tested

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 11:53 AM

If greed and evil had faces, the ones on this article would be prime contenders for the position.

chr Jun 3, 2024, 02:41 PM

Straight out of their financiers playbook. They must really think South Africans are stupid.

chr Jun 3, 2024, 02:43 PM

Yes

Johan Greyling Jun 3, 2024, 03:01 PM

Ha, Ha Luckily no body takes dishonest people seriously least of all the Zuma family and Julius and his cronies. The ANC can be thankful Ramaphosa was leading them because if Zuma was still there the voters would have given the ANC only the votes that MK & Putin got. I was very impressed with Ramaphosa's statement ship at the announcing of the final tally of the votes by the IEC.

tarmstrong141 Jun 3, 2024, 03:53 PM

America got Trump SA got Zuma. You decide who got the better deal. 2 pages from the same book.